Geo-Strategic Processes in the Caucasus Region: Network Analysis Approach; Submitted to Conference of the State Service Academy, Moscow, 2006

Геостратегические последствия роспуска Советского полюса биполярного мира являются сегодня предметом всестороннего осмысления в научном сообществе. В системе международных отношений завязываются новые узлы геостратегических, политико-экономических проблем и противоречий, развитие которых при определенных ситуациях может приобрести глобальное значение.

SCAGS_Russian

Abstract:
Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/j2u3225557445t21/

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